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Analysis of Foreign Exchange Interventions by Intervention Agent with an Artificial Market Approach

机译:干预代理人外汇干预的人工市场分析

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摘要

We propose a multi-agent system which learns intervention policies and evaluates the effect of interventions in an artificial foreign exchange market. Izumi et al. had presented a system called AGEDASI TOF to simulate artificial market, together with a support system for the government to decide foreign exchange policies. However, the system needed to fix the amount of governmental intervention prior to the simulation, and was not realistic. In addition, the interventions in the system did not affect supply and demand of currencies; thus we could not discuss the effect of intervention correctly. First, we improve the system so as to make much of the weights of influential factors. Thereafter, we introduce an intervention agent that has the role of the central bank to stabilize the market. We could show that the agent learned the effective intervention policies through the reinforcement learning, and that the exchange rate converged to a certain extent in the expected range. We could also estimate the amount of intervention, showing the efficacy of signaling. In this model, in order to investigate the aliasing of the perception of the intervention agent, we introduced a pseudo-agent who was supposed to be able to observe all the behaviors of dealer agents; with this super-agent, we discussed the adequate granularity for a market state description.
机译:我们提出了一种多主体系统,该系统可以学习干预政策并评估在人工外汇市场中干预的效果。 Izumi等。提出了一个名为AGEDASI TOF的系统来模拟人工市场,并提供了一个支持政府决定外汇政策的支持系统。但是,该系统需要在模拟之前确定政府干预的数量,因此不现实。此外,系统中的干预措施没有影响货币的供求;因此我们无法正确讨论干预的效果。首先,我们改进系统,以充分利用影响因素的权重。此后,我们引入一种干预代理,该代理具有中央银行稳定市场的作用。我们可以证明,代理人通过强化学习中学到了有效的干预政策,汇率在一定范围内收敛了。我们还可以估计干预的数量,显示信号传导的功效。在该模型中,为了调查干预代理的感知的混叠,我们引入了一个伪代理,该代理应该能够观察经销商代理的所有行为。通过这种超级代理,我们讨论了市场状态描述的适当粒度。

著录项

  • 作者

    松井, 宏樹; 東条, 敏;

  • 作者单位
  • 年度 2005
  • 总页数
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 jp
  • 中图分类

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